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27. How to Trade the Parabolic SAR - Stocks, Futures, Forex
Produced By:
InformedTrades
on 26 Dec 2007
Tags: howtotradeParabolicSARdaytrade(more...)investingoneyfinancebusinessforexfuturesstockmarket
informedtrades(less)
Description: http://www.informedtrades.com/
A (more...) lesson on how to trade the Parabolic Stop and Reversal (SAR) indicator for traders of the forex, futures, and stock markets.
In our last lesson we learned about the Average Directional Index (ADX) an indicator which helps traders determine the strength of trends in the market. In today's lesson we are going to look at another indicator called the Parabolic Stop and Reversal (Parabolic SAR), which helps traders enter and manage positions when trading those trends.
The Parabolic SAR is an indicator that, like Bollinger bands is plotted on price, the general idea of which is to buy into up trends when the indicator is below price, and sell into downtrends when the indicator is above price. Once traders are in positions the indicator also assists in managing the position by providing guidance as to how one should trail their stop.
Example of the Parabolic SAR
While this is an indicator that works very well in trending markets, as you can see from the below chart simply following the basic be long when the indicator is below price and be short when the indicator is above price will lead to many whipsaws in range bound markets.
Example of Whipsaws in Range Bound Markets
To combat this problem the developer of the indicator J. Welles Wilder (who also developed the RSI and ADX) recommended establishing the strength and direction of the trend first through the use of things such as the ADX, and then using the Parabolic SAR to trade that trend. As mentioned above although the Parabolic SAR is used for both entering and managing positions, it is used far more to set stops once in a position.
As with the other indicators we have covered in past lessons it is recommended to use this indicator in conjunction with other methods of analysis for confirmation not only on trade entry but also on trade exit.
Example:
That's our lesson for today. While my lessons are by no means exhaustive on the subject this also concludes my series on technical indicators. If you are interested in learning more about the indicators that we have studies as well as some of the other indicators that traders use, I encourage you to visit the technical indicators section of informedtrades.com. In our next lesson we will finish up our series on technical analysis by taking a deeper look at candlestick chart patterns and how one can use these in their trading.
As always I encourage you to participate in the community by posting your comments and questions below, and have a great day! (less)
The New Way to AutoPlayYouTube Videos : Embed Code Changes
Produced By:
ocollier
on 01 Mar 2008
Tags: autoplayautoplayautostart(more...)startyoutubevideosembedcodechange(less)
Description: http://www.otiscollier.com
If you (more...) haven't noticed, YouTube made some changes to their embed code. If you were looking at an older video where I showed you how to autostart your videos, that process no longer works. This is the new way to autostart your YouTube videos.
autoplay
autostart
auto play
auto start
youtube videos
embed code
does not work
automatically start
automatically play
autoplay
autostart
auto play
auto start
youtube videos
embed code
does not work
automatically start
automatically play (less)
Views: 3
Comments: 0
Duration: 03:10
49. Trading The Martingale and Anti Martingale Strategies
Produced By:
InformedTrades
on 24 Jan 2008
Tags: howtotradetradingmartingale(more...)antimartingaledaytradeinvestingmoneyforexfuturesstockmarket
informedtrades(less)
Description: http://www.informedtrades.com
A lesson (more...) on the two different categories that position sizing strategies fall into when used in the forex, futures, and stock market.
ur last lesson we looked at how most traders pick a standard amount to trade per certain amount of equity in their account and how this probably isn't the best way to maximize profits and minimize losses of a potential strategy. In today's lesson we are going to look at the two categories that most position sizing strategies fall into which are known as martingale strategies and anti martingale strategies.
A position sizing strategy which incorporates the martingale technique is basically any strategy which increases the trade size as a trade moves against the trader or after a losing trade. On the flip side a position sizing strategy which incorporates the anti martingale technique is basically any strategy which increases the trade size as the trade moves in the traders favor or after a winning trade.
The most basic martingale strategy is one in which the trader trades a set position size at the beginning of his trading strategy and then double's the size of his trades after each unprofitable trade, returning back to the original position size only after a profitable trade. Using this strategy no matter how large the string of losing trades a trader faces, on the next winning trade they will make up all their losses plus a profit equal to the profit on their original trade size.
As an example lets say that a trader is using a strategy on the full size EUR/USD Forex contract that takes profits and losses both at the 200 point level (I like using the EUR/USD Forex contract because it has a fixed point value of $1 per contract for mini forex contracts and $10 per contract for full sized contracts but the example is the same for any instrument)
The trader starts with $100,000 in his account and decides that his starting position size will be 3 contracts (300,000) and that he will use the basic martingale strategy to place his trades. Using the below 10 trades here is how it would work:
example
As you can see from the above example although the trader was down significantly going into the 10th trade, as the 10th trade was profitable he made up all the his losses plus a brought the account profitable by the equity high of the account plus original profit target of $6000.
At first glance the above method can seem very sound and people often point to their perception that the chances of having a winning trade increase after a string of loosing trades. Mathematically however the large majority of strategies work like flipping a coin, in that the chances of having a profitable trade on the next trade is completely independent of how many profitable or unprofitable trades one has leading up to that trade. As when flipping a coin no matter how many times you flip heads the chances of flipping tails on the next flip of the coin are still 50/50.
The second problem with this method is that it requires an unlimited amount of money to ensure success. Looking at our trade example again but replacing the last trade with another loosing trade instead of a winner, you can see that the trader is now in a position where, at the normal $1000 per contract margin level required, he does not have enough money in his account to put up the necessary margin which is required to initiate the next 48 contract position.
Example
So while the pure martingale strategy and variations of it can produce successful results for extended periods of time, as I hope the above shows, odds are that it will eventually end up in blowing ones account completely.
With this in mind the large majority of successful traders that I have seen follow anti martingale strategies which increase size when trades are profitable, never when unprofitable, and these are the methods which I will be covering starting in tomorrow's lesson. (less)
25. How to Trade Bollinger Bands - Stocks, Futures, Forex
Produced By:
InformedTrades
on 20 Dec 2007
Tags: howtotradebollingerbandsdaytrade(more...)investingmoneyfinancebusinessforexfuturesstockmarket
informedtrades(less)
Description: http://www.informedtrades.com/
A (more...) Lesson on Bollinger Bands for active traders and investors using technical analysis in the forex, futures, and stock markets.
The link that I refer to on Standard Deviation is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
The link that I refer to with more resources on Bollinger Bands is here:
http://www.informedtrades.com/tags/index.php/bollinger%20bands/
In our last lesson we learned about the Stochastic Oscillator and how traders use this in their trading. In today's lesson we are going to learn about an indicator which helps traders gauge the volatility and how current prices compare to past prices.
Bollinger Bands are comprised of three bands which are referred to as the upper band, the lower band, and the center band. The middle band is a simple moving average which is normally set at 20 periods, and the upper band and lower band represent chart points that are two standard deviations away from that moving average.
Example of Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger bands are designed to give traders a feel for what the volatility is in the market and how high or low prices are relative to the recent past. The basic premise of Bollinger bands is that price should normally fall within two standard deviations (represented by the upper and lower band) of the mean which is the center line moving average. If you are unfamiliar with what a standard deviation is you can read about it here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation. As this is the case trend reversals often occur near the upper and lower bands. As the center line is a moving average which represents the trend in the market, it will also frequently act as support or resistance.
The first way that traders use the indicator is to identify potential overbought and oversold places in the market. Although some traders will take a close outside the upper or lower bands as buy and sell signals, John Bollinger who developed the indicator recommends that this method should only be traded with the confirmation of other indicators. Outside of the fact that most traders would recommend confirming signals with more than one method, with Bollinger bands prices which stay outside or remain close to the upper or lower band can indicate a strong trend, a situation that you do not want to be trading reversals in. For this reason selling at the upper band and buying at the lower is a technique that is best served in range bound markets.
Example of Buying and Selling at the Upper and Lower Band:
Large breakouts often occur after periods of low volatility when the bands contract. As this is the case traders will often position for a trend trade on a break of the upper or lower Bollinger band after a period of contraction or low volatility. Be careful when using this strategy as the first move is often a fake out.
Example
As Bollinger bands paint a good picture directly on the price chart of how high or low price is relative to historical prices, this is a good indicator to use in conjunction with other methods such as some of the chart patterns that we have learned so far and some of the candlestick patterns which we will learn in future lessons. Below is one such example:
As Bollinger Bands are one of the most popular indicators around I have created a special page on InformedTrades.com which lists multiple resources for those looking for more information on trading Bollinger Bands.
That's our lesson for today. You should now have a good understanding of Bollinger bands and how traders use these in their trading. In our next lesson we are going to go over the Average Directional Index or ADX, which helps traders identify the strength or weakness of a trend so we hope to see you in that lesson.
As always if you have any questions or comments please feel free to have them in the comments section below, and have a great day! (less)
Views: 3
Comments: 0
Duration: 07:36
Forex Trading: Why does the Yen Strengthen on Risk Aversion
Produced By:
InformedTrades
on 16 Dec 2007
Tags: Forexforexmarketcurrencyforeignexchange(more...)forextradingYenJPYdaytradehowto(less)
Description: http://www.informedtrades.com/
My (more...) answer to a readers question on why the yen has strengthened as a result of the sub prime crisis.
The yen has a very low interest rate so when times are good and people are looking to take some risks they will borrow yen and buy other assets that they expect to get a higher yield with such as other currencies that earn a higher interest rates, stocks, etc.
When things go bad however such as what happened in the subprime market traders unwind those positions and buy back the yen that they sold causing the yen to rally. They unwind their positions either because they become more risk averse or because they are forced to because of losses and the resulting margin calls. (less)